Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Middle East - a color coded graphic badly needed

This is a strange situation. The US is now rushing off to 'punish' an evil dictator for something another evil dictator 'walked" on. As we know Saddam Hussein blatantly gassed several hundred Kurds before he became  an 'official enemy' - and nobody did jackshit. Yet ironically we want to 'punish' but not remove from power this chin-less wonder, Bashir Assad. It's only harassment and "degradation of his military capability" but not defeat because if he were actually defeated, it might mean our currently 'official enemy', the (ever multiplying) "El Qaeda 'affiliates," might take over.

It is alarming (to me) that when the leadership of the Republican and Democratic parties finally agree on something, it's something bad - that it's a good idea to again stick our arm into a hornet's nest.  Recall that most of the recent bad decisions by Congress (Iraq War, NDAA, Patriot Act) came with this kind of coalescence of Demo and GOP 'opponents. '

One almost needs a color-coded interactive graphic to begin to make sense out this complex geo-political mosaic mess. The Muslim religion is engaged in a internecine four-way war with moderates Muslims vs. reactionary Muslims vs. reactionary Shia vs reactionary jihadist Sunnis, and both vs. the "infidels in the West." And the Mid East states (along with Pakistan and Afghanistan) is the main battlefield.

 First you have the Syria involved in a bloody civil war with a brutal regime that may or may not have used nerve gas as a weapon. Then you have Iran, one of our current 'official enemies' which is actively pro Assad, Next you have Iraq (now almost a failed state courtesy of a US invasion a decade ago) with its besieged Shia government presumably pro-Assad while its bellicose terrorism-prone Sunni opposition actively anti-Assad (and sending fighters to Syria.) ,  Lebanon is the home of the Shia Hezbollah and the bane of the Israelis and who successfully forced the Israel Defense Force out of Lebanon.  Hezbollah, is now actively and effectively helping Assad militarily. Then there is the oil-rich Gulf States including Saudia Arabia all Sunni and actively supporting the anti-Assad forces including the Al Qaeda factions. Ah yes, and then there is the big bear, Russia, a long time ally of Syria going back to the Cold War days, who is also actively supporting the Assad regime with modern weapons (and along with China blocking any UN sanctions against Syria.) Turkey, now run by Sunni Islamists, is actively supporting anti-Assad forces and is constantly cajoling the US to become more involved. On the sidelines is the post Arab Spring Egypt, that volitile "ex-democracy” now army-run, presumably  on the side of secular anti-Assad forces but their now persecuted democratically elected opposition, the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood one would assume would also be supportive of Sunni anti-Assad forces.  Into this caldron of doom the US under Barack Obama now wants to jump in feet first and prior to any proper independent UN investigation of the facts.  And, of course, Israel, perennial enemy of Syria and now Iran (and everybody else in the neighborhood), quietly cheering on the US as it wades into another dismal swamp without a compass. 

As horrible a precedent as using sarin gas is (if that's what really happened) as a new way to 'drain the swamp' of insurgent supporters, its use should still is not be used as an excuse for the US to get involved in yet another regional war – or worse. It could become an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand kind of moment. There are too may power players, too may hot headed Jihadists, too many unknowns. Even the US military advised against getting involved (until ordered to cooperate by their Commander and Chief) who hemmed himself in with loose talk about crossing red lines.

Moreover the US assuming the role as global enforcer of 'proper' warfare standards seems a bit hypocritical to say the least what with our use of drones, cluster bombs, land mines, depleted uranium shells, white phosphorus, napalm, Agent Orange and nuclear weapons. Just because a given horrific weapon has not been formally designated 'illegal' does not mean its use is not cruelly effective and as grimly horrible as other 'legal' ones. 

I wish Obama would could wriggle out of this but he's committed now.

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