With the all of the white-guys-on-parade-Repub candidates for Prez flailing around for a means to distance themselves from The Bush, immigration may be the ticket. Nativism runs deep in this country and Latino immigrants, legal and illegal, have now dispersed themselves through out country. So it is no longer simply a regional issue. Who has not gone to a Home Depot or a Lowes and seen all these dudes furtively hanging around (almost like they are selling something illegal) apparently waiting for work, quietly jabbering away in Espanol. TV commentator Lou Dobbs has made a career with his incessant tirades - agitating and exaggerating daily about our Broken Borders. Immigration is one of the few issues George W. Bush has taken a moderate position on and it has only exacerbated his sinking popularity with many Republicans.
With the Demos continuing to disappoint showing little zeal or political courage to steadfastly confront an out of control Imperial Presidency, the Repubs will be angling for an issue to recapture enough of the electorate to again weasel their way back into the Presidency (remember the voting machinery is still in the hands of many GOP state functionaries.) All the clap-trap about the inherent immorality of gays or the sanctity of life of unborn fetuses is starting to wear thin. Such issues no longer have the punch they once had. They need a new wedge. And Immigration with a capital "I" will do just fine. It is divisive enough; it is definitely emotive enough and it is something that George W. Bush actually had a moderate position on - one that they can disagree with and thus redefine themselves as non-Bushian Republicans.
Several categories of voters are vulnerable to the charms of the Repubs on the immigration issue. First of all, immigration is a splendid means to split off many from that portion of those who vote as "independents" or who only weakly identify with either party. This highly sought after pack of shallow thinking, non-committal bozos (whose perennial pursuit drives the Democrats to the right in every presidential election) is always fair game. Included here are what were once called Mugwamps (registered to one party but vote for the other.) This voting demographic tends to vote emotionally rather than rationally. Gun control leniency has elected many a Republican stalwart who has in turn enlisted in the very class war that will economically hurt the very same blue collar gun-aficionado who put in them in - shifting the tax burden on to middle classes, deregulation of the big corporations, pro-NAFTA neoliberalism on steroids, etc. And of course how many Republican voting evangelical Christians have suffered a full decade of a frozen minimum wage at their crummy Walmart jobs while waiting for the Rapture? Try as the Demos do, the Repubs, Karl Rove or no Karl Rove, are masters Pied Pipers at luring these poor saps over the hill and into the arms of their class enemies.
And then there are the many loyal Democrats who, although they despise Bush and his panoply of horrors, also resent the downward pressure on wages produced by the perceived hoards of "illegal immigrants", people who are used to getting for a full day's work for what they get in the USA in a single hour. Many voting Democrats are caught in vise of a seemingly low but relentless rate of inflation (officially 2.36% - can that be real?) and stagnant wages (which continues to lag behind productivity.) To most people the official inflation rate doesn't seem to capture the increasing spread between living expenses and take-home pay. Somehow housing costs, either rents or payments on recently taken out huge mortgages, don't seen to be reflected in the consumer price index (CPI.) Plus many people were seduced into buying gas gobbling, greenhouse gas spewing SUVs and giant pickup trucks in the last few years and now gas prices seems to be only going up. So the "illegal immigrants" whether directly responsible or not will make fine scapegoats for economic stress suffered by the middle and lower middle class voters. The party that can manipulate that frustration and resentment will get a bonanza of votes. Which party is the most intellectually dishonest and conniving? Which party is a virtuoso at getting people to vote against their own best interests?
And then of course there are Repub loyalists - the so-called the Republican Base. They now consist of two rather disparate categories. The first is the the old-line country club patrician ruling class type Republicans. From the small town, small fry Babbits to the Ivy League educated corporate elite (the real power behind the throne), these are the boys who run the show if they can - and they usually can. This group, while numerically small, is quintessentially influential out all proportion to their numbers controlling many institutions (universities, foundations, NGOs) and most importantly the media. Also paradoxically and probably what accounts for Bush's unpopular support for "amnesty for illegals", these guys own many of the factories and farms that now employ these "undocumented" interlopers. For these people it is all about economics - they really do enjoy the promised tax breaks and they enjoy the cheap labor. So they probably are of two minds on the issue. But when comes down to it they know their butter placement and their sides of bread. They really do benefit from privatization, deregulation, anti-union policies, off-shore production (and banking), anti-environmental policies, etc. -in short the whole neoliberal agenda.
The second component of the Republican Base couldn't have less in common with first part. They are the brain dead redneckian right wingers, many from the South, who always gravitate to that position that allows for the most hate, racism and bigotry to be manifested - the audience of Ann Coulter and Michael Savage and Rush Limbaugh, etc. This group is rather malleable. To some extent this demographic overlaps with the unaffiliated types cited above. This is essentially an amorphous group of under-educated, binary minded empty vessels that can be used by demagogues and rabblerousers of any ideology - they are the rabble. And (surprise, surprise) they seem to have gravitated to the right on the immigration issue. However, that energy can (and has been) redirected upward toward the upper classes, their real enemy.
The Democrats must come to terms with the so-called Globalization issue. It is international economic forces and damaged ecological systems that have increased this world wide migration rate as the poor are pushed off the land. Subsidized crop producing wealthy developed countries hypocritically and cynically force 'free market reforms' and privitization on underdeveloped countries. As their ag sectors are consolidated and industrialized to compete the excess rural population either winds up in festering slums that ring their overloaded cities, or they flee over the nearest border usually illegally to somewhere where things are relatively less desperate. The illegal immigrants are not freeloaders and opportunists nearly as much as the educated professionals graduates of state supported universities who gravitate legally to higher wage zones. This is commonly known as "brain drain" and it is accepted and encouraged. The travails of the poor on an overpopulated abused planet will not go away - billions live on less than $2.00 (US) a day. Whether they remain in their wretched hell hole festering Third World slums without clean water and have to endure stinking open sewers while living cardboard and tin shacks, or whether they flee over the border willing to work for peanuts, they will not go away.
Unless the Democrats begin to formulate a readily comprehensible analysis and back away from the excesses of the "no holds barred, pedal to the metal, 'free market' capitalism known as Neo-liberalism they will be ambushed by Republicans on the immigration issue. No way will the Democrats Party, a political party with sizable components of ex-immigrants (Mexicans- Americans) and descendants of slaves be able to match the reactionary, racist, Nativist policy that the Republican, no-nothing right can conjure up. The Republicans will come up with a harsh, unworkable but appealing demagogic approach and it will be very politically appealing to the constituency that it is aimed at.
The Democrats must counter with a bold plan of a green rebuilding of the country including luring more investment back into this country. A New Deal scale project using reprogrammed military-industrial monies needs to be envisioned. The Democrats must go where they have not gone since FDR. They must inflame passion and inspire creativity and hope. The people are ready for it. Are the Democrats?
With the Demos continuing to disappoint showing little zeal or political courage to steadfastly confront an out of control Imperial Presidency, the Repubs will be angling for an issue to recapture enough of the electorate to again weasel their way back into the Presidency (remember the voting machinery is still in the hands of many GOP state functionaries.) All the clap-trap about the inherent immorality of gays or the sanctity of life of unborn fetuses is starting to wear thin. Such issues no longer have the punch they once had. They need a new wedge. And Immigration with a capital "I" will do just fine. It is divisive enough; it is definitely emotive enough and it is something that George W. Bush actually had a moderate position on - one that they can disagree with and thus redefine themselves as non-Bushian Republicans.
Several categories of voters are vulnerable to the charms of the Repubs on the immigration issue. First of all, immigration is a splendid means to split off many from that portion of those who vote as "independents" or who only weakly identify with either party. This highly sought after pack of shallow thinking, non-committal bozos (whose perennial pursuit drives the Democrats to the right in every presidential election) is always fair game. Included here are what were once called Mugwamps (registered to one party but vote for the other.) This voting demographic tends to vote emotionally rather than rationally. Gun control leniency has elected many a Republican stalwart who has in turn enlisted in the very class war that will economically hurt the very same blue collar gun-aficionado who put in them in - shifting the tax burden on to middle classes, deregulation of the big corporations, pro-NAFTA neoliberalism on steroids, etc. And of course how many Republican voting evangelical Christians have suffered a full decade of a frozen minimum wage at their crummy Walmart jobs while waiting for the Rapture? Try as the Demos do, the Repubs, Karl Rove or no Karl Rove, are masters Pied Pipers at luring these poor saps over the hill and into the arms of their class enemies.
And then there are the many loyal Democrats who, although they despise Bush and his panoply of horrors, also resent the downward pressure on wages produced by the perceived hoards of "illegal immigrants", people who are used to getting for a full day's work for what they get in the USA in a single hour. Many voting Democrats are caught in vise of a seemingly low but relentless rate of inflation (officially 2.36% - can that be real?) and stagnant wages (which continues to lag behind productivity.) To most people the official inflation rate doesn't seem to capture the increasing spread between living expenses and take-home pay. Somehow housing costs, either rents or payments on recently taken out huge mortgages, don't seen to be reflected in the consumer price index (CPI.) Plus many people were seduced into buying gas gobbling, greenhouse gas spewing SUVs and giant pickup trucks in the last few years and now gas prices seems to be only going up. So the "illegal immigrants" whether directly responsible or not will make fine scapegoats for economic stress suffered by the middle and lower middle class voters. The party that can manipulate that frustration and resentment will get a bonanza of votes. Which party is the most intellectually dishonest and conniving? Which party is a virtuoso at getting people to vote against their own best interests?
And then of course there are Repub loyalists - the so-called the Republican Base. They now consist of two rather disparate categories. The first is the the old-line country club patrician ruling class type Republicans. From the small town, small fry Babbits to the Ivy League educated corporate elite (the real power behind the throne), these are the boys who run the show if they can - and they usually can. This group, while numerically small, is quintessentially influential out all proportion to their numbers controlling many institutions (universities, foundations, NGOs) and most importantly the media. Also paradoxically and probably what accounts for Bush's unpopular support for "amnesty for illegals", these guys own many of the factories and farms that now employ these "undocumented" interlopers. For these people it is all about economics - they really do enjoy the promised tax breaks and they enjoy the cheap labor. So they probably are of two minds on the issue. But when comes down to it they know their butter placement and their sides of bread. They really do benefit from privatization, deregulation, anti-union policies, off-shore production (and banking), anti-environmental policies, etc. -in short the whole neoliberal agenda.
The second component of the Republican Base couldn't have less in common with first part. They are the brain dead redneckian right wingers, many from the South, who always gravitate to that position that allows for the most hate, racism and bigotry to be manifested - the audience of Ann Coulter and Michael Savage and Rush Limbaugh, etc. This group is rather malleable. To some extent this demographic overlaps with the unaffiliated types cited above. This is essentially an amorphous group of under-educated, binary minded empty vessels that can be used by demagogues and rabblerousers of any ideology - they are the rabble. And (surprise, surprise) they seem to have gravitated to the right on the immigration issue. However, that energy can (and has been) redirected upward toward the upper classes, their real enemy.
The Democrats must come to terms with the so-called Globalization issue. It is international economic forces and damaged ecological systems that have increased this world wide migration rate as the poor are pushed off the land. Subsidized crop producing wealthy developed countries hypocritically and cynically force 'free market reforms' and privitization on underdeveloped countries. As their ag sectors are consolidated and industrialized to compete the excess rural population either winds up in festering slums that ring their overloaded cities, or they flee over the nearest border usually illegally to somewhere where things are relatively less desperate. The illegal immigrants are not freeloaders and opportunists nearly as much as the educated professionals graduates of state supported universities who gravitate legally to higher wage zones. This is commonly known as "brain drain" and it is accepted and encouraged. The travails of the poor on an overpopulated abused planet will not go away - billions live on less than $2.00 (US) a day. Whether they remain in their wretched hell hole festering Third World slums without clean water and have to endure stinking open sewers while living cardboard and tin shacks, or whether they flee over the border willing to work for peanuts, they will not go away.
Unless the Democrats begin to formulate a readily comprehensible analysis and back away from the excesses of the "no holds barred, pedal to the metal, 'free market' capitalism known as Neo-liberalism they will be ambushed by Republicans on the immigration issue. No way will the Democrats Party, a political party with sizable components of ex-immigrants (Mexicans- Americans) and descendants of slaves be able to match the reactionary, racist, Nativist policy that the Republican, no-nothing right can conjure up. The Republicans will come up with a harsh, unworkable but appealing demagogic approach and it will be very politically appealing to the constituency that it is aimed at.
The Democrats must counter with a bold plan of a green rebuilding of the country including luring more investment back into this country. A New Deal scale project using reprogrammed military-industrial monies needs to be envisioned. The Democrats must go where they have not gone since FDR. They must inflame passion and inspire creativity and hope. The people are ready for it. Are the Democrats?
2 comments:
If you are right and america has nothing to fear from immigration, then everything will be ok for us no matter what we do. If we increase immigration from its current 1 million per year, we're ok. If we stop all immigration, we're ok. But if anti-immigrationists are right, that this is a huge, unprecedented, risky experiment in changing ourselves into a majority non-white nation as quickly as possible, then everything will not be ok no matter what. That is why the anti-immigrationists show more prudence. Their course of action is the safe one, in which the US will come out alright whether or not massive third-world immigration is a disaster in the making.
Here is some data for you to chew on:
Debunking the Myth of Immigrant Criminality: Imprisonment Among First- and Second-Generation Young Men
By Rubén G. Rumbaut, Roberto G. Gonzales, Golnaz Komaie, and Charlie V. Morgan
University of California, Irvine
"Second Generation
Incarceration rates increase significantly for all US-born coethnics without exception. That is most notable for Mexicans, whose incarceration rate increases more than eightfold to 5.9 percent among the US born; for Vietnamese (from 0.46 to 5.6 percent among the US born); and for the Laotians and Cambodians (from 0.92 percent to 7.26 percent, the highest of any group except for native blacks). Almost all of the US born among those of Latin American and Asian origin can be assumed to consist of second-generation persons, with the exception of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, whose numbers may include a sizable number (around 25 percent) of third-generation individuals. (Since 1980, when the questions on parents' country of birth were dropped, the decennial census has not permitted the precise identification of second vs. third or higher generations.)
Thus, while incarceration rates are found to be extraordinarily low among immigrants, they are also seen to rise rapidly by the second generation. Except for the Chinese and Filipinos, the rates of all US-born Latin American and Asian groups exceed that of the referent group of non-Hispanic white natives."
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/display.cfm?id=403
Also see: "Minority Scores Lag on Teaching Tests" http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2007/08/19/minority_scores_lag_on_teaching_test/
"The minority failure rate has been demonstrably higher than among whites since the test's inception nearly a decade ago, according to state statistics, which show that 52 percent of Hispanic applicants and 54 percent of black applicants fail the writing portion of the exam. By comparison, 23 percent of whites fail. Black and Hispanic teachers also lag behind white teachers in major subject tests such as English, history, and math."
Also see: "Coming US Challange: A Less Literate Workforce"
excerpt: ""There is no time that I can tell you in the last hundred years" where literacy and numeracy have declined, says Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston and one of the report's authors. "But if you don't change outcomes for a wide variety of groups, this is the future we face."
The decline in literacy is one of the more startling projections in a report that examines what it calls a "perfect storm" of converging factors and how those trends are likely to play out if left unchecked.
The three factors identified are: a shifting labor market increasingly rewarding education and skills, a changing demographic that include a rapid-growing Hispanic population, and a yawning achievement gap, particularly along racial and socioeconomic lines, when it comes to reading and math."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0206/p02s01-legn.html
This experiment in transforming america is very risky. As the above articles show, things may or may not turn out ok. If we stopped all immigration right now, these problems would still be with us and growing. With current immigration policies they will grow faster. If amnesty is passed and immigration increased, the problems will accelerate unimaginably. There is more to being against massive third world immigration than knee-jerk racism. This issue is by no means cut and dried. Prudence tells me that all immigration should be stopped now. When you are in a hole, first stop digging.
Response to Scotty: I appreciate your civil and well reasoned response. However, I think you missed the main point of my post. I agree cross border migration especially the kind of out of control leakage from the South we are experiencing is not without negative consequences. But letting the GOP have the issue could leave us with 8 more years of Bushian type mismanagement and decline.
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