With the Demos continuing to disappoint showing little zeal or political courage to steadfastly confront an out of control Imperial Presidency, the Repubs will be angling for an issue to recapture enough of the electorate to again weasel their way back into the Presidency (remember the voting machinery is still in the hands of many GOP state functionaries.) All the clap-trap about the inherent immorality of gays or the sanctity of life of unborn fetuses is starting to wear thin. Such issues no longer have the punch they once had. They need a new wedge. And Immigration with a capital "I" will do just fine. It is divisive enough; it is definitely emotive enough and it is something that George W. Bush actually had a moderate position on - one that they can disagree with and thus redefine themselves as non-Bushian Republicans.
Several categories of voters are vulnerable to the charms of the Repubs on the immigration issue. First of all, immigration is a splendid means to split off many from that portion of those who vote as "independents" or who only weakly identify with either party. This highly sought after pack of shallow thinking, non-committal bozos (whose perennial pursuit drives the Democrats to the right in every presidential election) is always fair game. Included here are what were once called Mugwamps (registered to one party but vote for the other.) This voting demographic tends to vote emotionally rather than rationally. Gun control leniency has elected many a Republican stalwart who has in turn enlisted in the very class war that will economically hurt the very same blue collar gun-aficionado who put in them in - shifting the tax burden on to middle classes, deregulation of the big corporations, pro-NAFTA neoliberalism on steroids, etc. And of course how many Republican voting evangelical Christians have suffered a full decade of a frozen minimum wage at their crummy Walmart jobs while waiting for the Rapture? Try as the Demos do, the Repubs, Karl Rove or no Karl Rove, are masters Pied Pipers at luring these poor saps over the hill and into the arms of their class enemies.
And then there are the many loyal Democrats who, although they despise Bush and his panoply of horrors, also resent the downward pressure on wages produced by the perceived hoards of "illegal immigrants", people who are used to getting for a full day's work for what they get in the USA in a single hour. Many voting Democrats are caught in vise of a seemingly low but relentless rate of inflation (officially 2.36% - can that be real?) and stagnant wages (which continues to lag behind productivity.) To most people the official inflation rate doesn't seem to capture the increasing spread between living expenses and take-home pay. Somehow housing costs, either rents or payments on recently taken out huge mortgages, don't seen to be reflected in the consumer price index (CPI.) Plus many people were seduced into buying gas gobbling, greenhouse gas spewing SUVs and giant pickup trucks in the last few years and now gas prices seems to be only going up. So the "illegal immigrants" whether directly responsible or not will make fine scapegoats for economic stress suffered by the middle and lower middle class voters. The party that can manipulate that frustration and resentment will get a bonanza of votes. Which party is the most intellectually dishonest and conniving? Which party is a virtuoso at getting people to vote against their own best interests?
And then of course there are Repub loyalists - the so-called the Republican Base. They now consist of two rather disparate categories. The first is the the old-line country club patrician ruling class type Republicans. From the small town, small fry Babbits to the Ivy League educated corporate elite (the real power behind the throne), these are the boys who run the show if they can - and they usually can. This group, while numerically small, is quintessentially influential out all proportion to their numbers controlling many institutions (universities, foundations, NGOs) and most importantly the media. Also paradoxically and probably what accounts for Bush's unpopular support for "amnesty for illegals", these guys own many of the factories and farms that now employ these "undocumented" interlopers. For these people it is all about economics - they really do enjoy the promised tax breaks and they enjoy the cheap labor. So they probably are of two minds on the issue. But when comes down to it they know their butter placement and their sides of bread. They really do benefit from privatization, deregulation, anti-union policies, off-shore production (and banking), anti-environmental policies, etc. -in short the whole neoliberal agenda.
The second component of the Republican Base couldn't have less in common with first part. They are the brain dead redneckian right wingers, many from the South, who always gravitate to that position that allows for the most hate, racism and bigotry to be manifested - the audience of Ann Coulter and Michael Savage and Rush Limbaugh, etc. This group is rather malleable. To some extent this demographic overlaps with the unaffiliated types cited above. This is essentially an amorphous group of under-educated, binary minded empty vessels that can be used by demagogues and rabblerousers of any ideology - they are the rabble. And (surprise, surprise) they seem to have gravitated to the right on the immigration issue. However, that energy can (and has been) redirected upward toward the upper classes, their real enemy.
The Democrats must come to terms with the so-called Globalization issue. It is international economic forces and damaged ecological systems that have increased this world wide migration rate as the poor are pushed off the land. Subsidized crop producing wealthy developed countries hypocritically and cynically force 'free market reforms' and privitization on underdeveloped countries. As their ag sectors are consolidated and industrialized to compete the excess rural population either winds up in festering slums that ring their overloaded cities, or they flee over the nearest border usually illegally to somewhere where things are relatively less desperate. The illegal immigrants are not freeloaders and opportunists nearly as much as the educated professionals graduates of state supported universities who gravitate legally to higher wage zones. This is commonly known as "brain drain" and it is accepted and encouraged. The travails of the poor on an overpopulated abused planet will not go away - billions live on less than $2.00 (US) a day. Whether they remain in their wretched hell hole festering Third World slums without clean water and have to endure stinking open sewers while living cardboard and tin shacks, or whether they flee over the border willing to work for peanuts, they will not go away.
Unless the Democrats begin to formulate a readily comprehensible analysis and back away from the excesses of the "no holds barred, pedal to the metal, 'free market' capitalism known as Neo-liberalism they will be ambushed by Republicans on the immigration issue. No way will the Democrats Party, a political party with sizable components of ex-immigrants (Mexicans- Americans) and descendants of slaves be able to match the reactionary, racist, Nativist policy that the Republican, no-nothing right can conjure up. The Republicans will come up with a harsh, unworkable but appealing demagogic approach and it will be very politically appealing to the constituency that it is aimed at.
The Democrats must counter with a bold plan of a green rebuilding of the country including luring more investment back into this country. A New Deal scale project using reprogrammed military-industrial monies needs to be envisioned. The Democrats must go where they have not gone since FDR. They must inflame passion and inspire creativity and hope. The people are ready for it. Are the Democrats?